A new market that is growing fast
In less than a year, prediction market volume has grown ninefold. Here is what this market is, why the largest exchanges and funds trust it, and where it is heading
A market where the future is traded
A prediction market is a venue where people trade on the outcomes of real events: elections, matches, central bank decisions, crypto prices
- 01You choose an outcome“Yes” or “No”, a team, a candidate, a price level
- 02The price is the probabilityAn outcome costs from 0 to 100 cents: at 87 cents, the market puts the chance at 87%
- 03The winning outcome pays $1Per share, if the event happens. You can also sell a share earlier at the current price
Why the market is trusted
A poll asks for an opinion. A market asks whether a person is willing to risk money. That is why the price gathers the best knowledge of thousands of people and reacts quickly to news
was wagered on a single Polymarket market, “Who will win the US election”, in 2024 — the market called the winner before the polls did
were compared with the Iowa Electronic Markets over 1988–2004 — the market’s forecast proved more accurate, especially over longer horizons
Sources: The Block, NBC News, KCRG, Casino.org
From a university experiment to a billion-dollar industry
- 1988Iowa Electronic MarketsThe University of Iowa launches a real-money prediction market, with a $500 limit per person
- 2000sFirst attemptsIntrade and Tradesports gain popularity but shut down under regulatory pressure
- 2020A new generationPolymarket launches on-chain, and Kalshi becomes the first event exchange licensed by a US regulator
- 2024BreakthroughThe US election: more than $2 billion on a single market, and the whole world learns about prediction markets
- 2025The giants arriveThe owner of the New York Stock Exchange invests in Polymarket; CME, FanDuel, DraftKings, Robinhood and Coinbase launch their own markets
- 2026RecordsMonthly volume tops $44 billion
Volume grew ninefold in nine months
Combined monthly volume of Kalshi and Polymarket. June’s peak was driven by the FIFA World Cup, but even without it the market stays in the tens of billions
Kalshi counts the full contract value, Polymarket the trade amount. Sources: Pew Research Center, MetaMask, Datawallet
Two leaders, each worth billions
The market is led by two venues — both valued in the billions of dollars, and both continuing to attract investors
In talks on a new round at a $40 billion valuation
In talks on a round at a $15 billion valuation
Who is already here?
The largest exchanges, brokers and sports companies have already entered this market
- ICE — owner of the New York Stock ExchangeUp to $2 billion of investment in Polymarket
- CME Group and FanDuelJoint venue FanDuel Predicts since December 2025
- CoinbaseAcquired The Clearing Company
- RobinhoodEvent contracts right inside the brokerage app
- DraftKings and FanaticsTheir own prediction markets in the US
Sources: The Block, CasinoBeats
Public interest is rising
Mainstream interest is just getting started: searches have grown eightfold in two years
Google Trends · worldwide · average yearly search interest for “Polymarket” and “Kalshi” · * 2026 — January–October
Where the market is heading
Analysts at major banks expect market volume to grow twentyfold by 2030
- Bernstein$1 trillion in annual volume by 2030
- MacquarieUp to $1.5 trillion in volume by 2030
- CitizensIndustry revenue to grow fivefold — over $10 billion by 2030
- Analyst estimates for 2030
Sources: The Block, Casino.org, Bloomberg Government
More than sports
Today, sports account for more than half of all volume. By 2030, Bernstein expects that share to halve as events from every area of life grow
Politics · Economy · Crypto · Technology · Culture · Weather
Sources: Decrypt
Every era brings a new market
Great fortunes are made not by the smartest, but by those who arrive early. Every era opens a window of opportunity — and that window closes
- 01Electricity
- 02Stock market
- 03Internet
- 04Crypto
- 05AI
- nowPrediction markets
How can you build capital here?
Knowing where the market is growing is not enough. What matters is how to make money in it. Three of the four paths are slow or risky
Build a venue
Years of development and licensing
Trade on your own
It takes expertise, and the risk is yours
Work in the industry
A salary, not capital
Invest in a company
One that is already building
The company wins, not the market
A market grows for everyone, but only a few win. Every era produced hundreds of companies — and only a handful became giants
Enter a new market with a reliable partner
If you have decided to enter this market, the key decision is who you go with. Six signs of a strong company:
- 01People already on board
- 02A working product
- 03Market recognition
- 04A team with known names
- 05Real partners
- 06A legal foundation